Sunday, May 9, 2010

AAPL Inc. and The Oil and Gas Industry

Caught up with too much investment options and too little money? Let me assist you to focus your investment dollars in maximizing returns :)
The two industries in comparison will be Technology Stocks and The Oil and Gas Industry which deals in the precious 3 letter commodity - OIL.

1) AAPL (NASDAQ) Inc
The first interesting question to ask me is why do I put AAPL Inc. as an overaching nomenclature of the Technology Stocks. Simple; AAPL is the future and the future is AAPL.
Check out the iPad. It has sold 1 million units in <1 style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 225px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh58GihELH8JwGLvnWhOo5772Fc1Mi8D4TOwz3zsSnU-y945WvGoV0ge9NSKSA98etaBE1fdkf5fJ-_5NJjyHJxlVq32lBrMr90lKfcDiyiq9-MTp83V-BlTWDWRin8Tsvre42setcKmkk/s400/appleinc.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5469134908037513442" border="0">Following the general market correction last week (3-7 May), AAPL has corrected 50% as shown in the fibonacci retracements drawn in the chart above. This might be a good place to place entry orders in AAPL.
An online reported recently: "In addition Apple has everything going on for it. They have a strong position, great market share, consumers can’t get enough of their products. They are innovative, trailblazers, and their iPhone continues to grow in popularity. Heck – they even sold 1 million iPads in less than a month for anywhere between $499 and $829 a whack (not to mention the 1.5 million eBooks that were sold from their app store because of the new purchases.)"

What do I see here? Great earnings growth

What does this mean for AAPL? The soaring of stock price. Going back in time, you will realise that AAPL does not have a tendency of paying out dividends in recent years. This means that earnings will be reflected in the increasing share price.

Then should I buy AAPL then?
Yes; if your portfolio is $100,000 and above. 10 AAPL shares is going to cost you anything in excess of $2500. A huge risk to bear in a <$10,000 portfolio.
Let me recommend you another stock which might be a better one to have with a <$10k portfolio.


2) The Oil and Gas Industry. In particular ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)
- Soaring Commodity Prices in particular Crude. Winter is coming in 4-5 months. Time to start betting on soaring oil prices.
- Oil spill in Gulf of Mexico. oooppss BP ... Hello other Oil and Gas Stocks
- COP just resolved some bad assets it has previously held when the market tanked in Mar 09.
- 2 quarters of improving earnings and exponential increase in incomes.
- 5% dividends yearly in addition to high possibility of Stock prices increase with the corresponding increase in Commodity prices. Note that Buying Oil Futures is not going to pay you dividends. :) Take a look at COP charts. An opportunity to enter LONG for COP is presenting itself now after a missed short selling opportunity just the week ago. With dividends to boot, this is a good stock to hold until the end of Winter 2010.
So here are the numbers:
50 shares of COP = $2500
Dividends Payout = $100 (approx)
Risk in your portfolio is decreased by a percentage point in a $10k portfolio as compared to buying AAPL.

Market correction presents opportunity to buy stocks at a discounted price. Don't let fear and fear spreading soothsayers cause you to miss the impending market rally.



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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Why you should not buy Citigroup now. (NYSE:C)

1) US Treasury department is planning to sell their stake in Citigroup in 2010. Would you buy when such a big sale is taking place? I won't. At least, I will hold my horses with alarm bells ringing.
2) Technical PictureThe upside of this trade is not worth taking a risk. Safe price targets are between $4.70 - $5 (fibs 161%). Stops should be below the 10SMA ($3.80 - $4.00).
Clearly your Risk-Reward ratio is <2. I'm not comfortable with this. 3) Chasing the missed channel breakout 4) Temasek Holdings have previously sold their stake in Citigroup, leaving a small speculative portion. I hear Temasek Holdings. Short EURO instead.


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Sunday, March 7, 2010

Trade Signal: usdcad (7 Mar 10)

Currency Pair: USDCAD
Action: Buy / Long
Duration: Order to last till end of week of 7 Mar 10; trade to last max 2.5wks
Risk-Reward Ratio of Trade: x2
Justifications:

Weekly Chart

Clear Range Bound Trading since Sep-Oct period



Daily Charts
1. Reinforcement of Range Bound (trade from support to resistance and vice-versa)
2. Rebound Count off Support is #3
3. Orders on daily candlesticks show little orders below current support i.e. downwards momentum dying
4. Trade risk-rewards capable of hitting the next resistance level
5. Stochastics and RSI showing textbook reversal



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